ترول ایرانی

گالری عکس

Posts tagged with “WI-07”

But The Seat’s Not “Red”…Yet

From this morning’s “Morning Score” email from Politico, which I called last night.

PICKING FAVORITES: The DCCC is announcing 11 new additions to its “Red to Blue” list of targeted races Monday, with two particularly telling names on the list: Hawaii state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, the non-DCCC-favored candidate in last month’s special election for her state’s 1st Congressional District, and West Virginia state Sen. Mike Oliverio, who ousted Democratic Rep. Alan Mollohan in a May primary. Neither of those contenders was their party’s top choice; both of them are now the standard-bearers Democrats have settled on for November. Also on the list: Tarryl Clark (in MN-06); Chad Causey (in AR-01); Joyce Elliott (in AR-02); Denny Heck (in WA-03); Julie Lassa (in WI-07); Gary McDowell (in MI-01); Tommy Sowers (in MO-08); Manan Trivedi (in PA-06) and Trent Van Haaften (in IN-08).

NOTABLE: Seven of those seats are actually not targeted for flipping from “red to blue” — they’re open seats being targeted for retention.

(The “Picking Favorites” opening at the start of that paragraph is the actual wording used in the email.  It’s irony applying to what the DCCC, DPW, and David Obey did is just delicious to no end.)

As I posted last night in my compilation post, the DCCC doesn’t have a catch-all program for its seats like the NRCC’s “Young Guns,” so they’re piggybacking the name “Red to Blue” for many of the Democratic-held open seats this cycle.  The confusion (and irony) is that many of these seats were never “Red” in the first place.

Leave a Comment

NRCC to Candidates: Prove Yourselves Worthy!

Actual, given the likelihood that donations next year will be less because of the economy, this isn’t the most outrageous news the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) could come out with.  Less money means they’ll have to be picky with who they help out in General Election contests.  Candidates should be able to show they are worth the

Candidates hoping for financial help from the National Republican Congressional Committee will have to prove they’re worth the investment.

The NRCC will only spend money on independent expenditure ads hitting Democrats if the Republican in the race has qualified as a top-tier member of the “Young Guns” program, a party spokesman tells The Hill.

Young Guns is a three-tiered program aimed at recruiting and improving top-notch candidates, the GOP’s answer to Democrats’ successful “Red to Blue” program. Candidates begin as “On the Radar” prospects before advancing to “Contenders.” If they meet certain benchmarks laid out by the NRCC, they become Young Guns.

So far, nine candidates have made it to the Contender tier. Thirty-eight candidates have achieved On the Radar status. None have made it to Young Guns level.

Paul Lindsay, an NRCC spokesman, declined to specify what the benchmarks for achieving the top status are, citing a policy against discussing internal strategy. But members of the different tiers will be judged on fundraising, grassroots and communications bars they have to meet.

Membership in the Young Guns does not guarantee the NRCC will spend money in the race, but the party will not spend money for members who do not reach the highest tier. Typically, the NRCC begins its financial relationship with a candidate by spending up to $87,300 in coordinated funds before moving on to independent expenditures.

In Wisconsin, the only members who so far have qualified made it into the lowest tier of the “Young Guns” programs are Sean Duffy in WI-07, Dan Kapanke in WI-03, and Reid Ribble in WI-08.  Given the primary field line-ups, expect to see the NRCC involved in Kapanke’s race more at this level since he’s the only declared Republican in WI-03 against Ron Kind; the other candidates have primaries.

What will be interesting to see is who else — especially in WI-08 — is added to the “Young Guns” programs.  With the possibility of a 6 or 7-way primary fight, the edge is going to go to the self-financing candidates and established political entities because much of the money will be on the sidelines until the general election.  Another factor will be who drops out as other candidates jump in.  One question I wonder is will Kerry Thomas, who still spends his time thinking John Gard tried to destroy Terri McCormick on multiple levels in 2006, get out if McCormick does get in as is rumored.

Time will tell; we’re just at the part of the game where pieces are being put on the chess board.  No one’s made any opening moves; though some press releases trashing Kagen’s votes on multiple fronts would be nice to see.

The lack of them is making me wonder how much of an amateur hour are we going to see next year.

Comments (6)

Charlie Cook: Democrats Won’t Be Able to Blame Economy on Bush

I often laugh when I see some liberal blogger (Okay, it’s just Chris Leibenthal) who goes on and on about how people are going to remember come November 2010 this economy as “The Bush-Cheney Recession.”

Well, he’s half-right according to political predictor Charlie Cook.  People do know the recession started in the Bush-Cheney years, however for Democrats, many people also know it was the Obama-Biden Administration and the Democratic Congress which passed the stimulus package, and (via The American Spectator) unless hiring picks up, they will eventually not just own the economy, but be blamed for it.

Obviously, there are many variables that can drive a political party’s fortune in next November’s elections, but the economy and jobs dwarf all others. Polls may show a majority of Americans understand that this recession started under President George W. Bush, but every day, President Obama, and inferentially his party, take on a bit more ownership. By the 2010 midterm elections, the economy will completely belong to Obama and Democrats.

What should concern Democrats is that while there is a diversity of views about just how much the economy will grow next year, the views of both optimists and pessimists converge on the politically important question of unemployment: The consensus is there will be very, very little job growth next year.

If I were running any of the three targeted seat the NRCC is looking at Wisconsin, I’d start by carving up ads which use the press releases of the any of their opponents where they taut the jobs the bills they are passing were supposed to be produced by now.  Use their own words — or the words of their press secretaries to be more precise — against them.

It wouldn’t be negative advertising.  It’d be a statement of broken promises and misplaced ideology.

Leave a Comment