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Posts tagged with “PA-12”

Cook Moves PA-12 to “Lean Republican”

Looks like the DCCC’s winning streak on special elections might be ending.

“But polls don’t always paint the whole picture, and for special election watchers who think this is the same kind of animal we saw in NY-20 and NY-23 last year, it’s time to think again. In this climate and corner of Pennsylvania, Democrats’ path to 50 percent is considerably more uphill than Republicans’, and the GOP is well-positioned to snap its disheartening string of special election losses.”

Haven’t seen what other political predictors have said on this race, but Cook’s movement could be just the first of many for this race.

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Clearly This Will Screw Up DNC/DCCC/Obama Messaging

Remember when Democrats said they were going to be proud to campaign this fall on the just-passed health care law?

Somehow, this guy missed the memo.

Democrat Mark Critz, running to succeed the late Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.), is branding himself as an opponent of health care legislation in his latest ad – a sign that the legislation is a tough sell even in working-class blue-collar Democratic confines.

Responding to an NRCC advertisement accusing him of backing health care reform, Critz says: “That ad’s not true. I opposed the health care bill, and I’m pro-life and pro-gun. That’s not liberal.”

Critz didn’t take a public position on the health care legislation during the Democratic nomination process, and declined to answer a survey from The Hill newspaper in March whether he would support the bill.

Critz’s campaign spokesman told POLITICO last week that he opposed certain aspects of the health care legislation, but would not support its repeal.

Critz is facing Republican businessman Tim Burns in the May 18 special election. Burns has been running against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the administration’s domestic agenda.

Democrats hold a significant registration edge in the southwestern Pennsylvania district, but Obama is not viewed favorably there. John McCain narrowly won the district with 49 percent, after John Kerry and Al Gore carried it the previous two presidential elections.

Recently, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) announced they were going to spend over $125,000 in ads in the rural Pennsylvania district.  The NRCC has already committed over $250,000 in ads to the district already.

All eyes are expected to follow an upcoming poll from Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling, who was polling over the weekend.  Early leaks from their Twitter feed seem to indicate Obama will not be able to help Critz if he comes in near the end (The POTUS is very unpopular in PA-12 and the state in general.) and Burns may in fact be ahead.

GOP internals from a month ago showed Burns was up 4%.

Many analysts are beginning to think the sole saving grace Critz may have is that May 18th is also the day of the primary in Pennsylvania; which could see a large Democratic turnout from the Spector-Sestak Senatorial Primary and a contested Democratic primary for Governor to replace out-going Governor Ed Rendell, who is term-limited.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/35943.html

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Polls Shows GOP Leading PA-12 Special

There’s word the Democrats are starting to get worried about the special elections in Hawaii-01 and Pennsylvania-12 set for next month.  Already, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is spending money on HI-01, now they might have to to defend John Murtha’s seat if this poll is correct.

According to an internal GOP poll obtained by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s politics blog, businessman Tim Burns (R) has a small lead in the competitive special election in Pennsylvania’s 12 district.

The Public Opinion Strategies poll showed Burns ahead of Critz, 45 percent to 41 percent, with 13 percent of respondents undecided. Burns’ 4-point lead is within the poll’s 4.9 point margin of error. It should also be noted that the survey was taken a month ago — March 14-15 — well before either candidate had gone up with television ads.

However, the polling memo does show why Republicans are beginning to invest in the race with a large ad buy this week: They think their GOP nominee has a decent shot of winning the May 18 special election to replace the late Rep. John P. Murtha (D-Pa.).

Burns is facing off against Mark Critz (D), a top aide to Murtha. While national Republicans began spending money on the race this week national Democrats have yet to make any Independent Expenditures in the Pennsylvania contest. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, however, is spending money on next month’s special election in Hawaii.

It was announced today that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the DCCC’s Republican counterpart is said to be spending a quarter-million on ads in the rural western Pennsylvania district.

In HI-01, Democrats must contend with a situation being called “NY-23 In-Reverse,” where two Democrats (one supported by the AFL-CIO and other labor groups, the other by the DC establishment) are fighting against one Republican in a winner-take-all general election because of the lack of a primary.

Both races are a month away.

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