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2010 Predictions: How’d I Do?

To read the original post, go here.

And away we go…

1: Oil will trade at over $100 a barrel for a portion of 2010, sending gas prices again over the $3 a gallon barrier.  Congress will do nothing to alleviate the price spike (i.e. increase domestic supply) and do the usual (Sue OPEC, Blame Speculators, Hold Congressional Hearings with Oil Copany Executives, etc.) song and dance.

International currencies — especially the U.S. Dollar and the Euro — tanked to such a level that the price of oil this year was more of a function of exchange rates than of supplies.  Gas never reached $3 a gallon until the closing weeks.

(Incorrect)

2: No liberal blogger in Wisconsin will predict Scott Walker will win the Governor’s Mansion, while no conservative blogger in Wisconsin will predict Tom Barrett will win the Governor’s Mansion.

Was dead on about the liberal bloggers, as for conservative bloggers…my habit of never reading her blog, along with not knowing her pathological hatred of Scott Walker made me completely forget that Cindy Kilkenny was out there.

As for Cindy’s standing as a “conservative blogger,” well…that is open to debate among the remnants of the BBA and has been for years.

(Half-Correct)

3: Wisconsin’s outstanding budget mess is bigger than anyone expects it to be or has been sold in the press.  Due to the manipulation of the 2009-2010 budget by JFC co-chairs Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Madison) and State Senator Mark Miller (D-Madison) to avoid a politically suicidal vote in an election year, the 2011 budget repair bill will be left to the next Governor and Legislature, and hence part of the 2010 Governor’s race.

The state budget repair bill’s total price tag is anywhere between $100 to $300 Million; and the overall state structural deficit is in the $3 to $4 Billion range.  This is a mess and a half to clean-up.

The budget hole was THE issue — along with jobs and the economy — during the Governor’s race.

(Correct)

4: Bob Ziegelbauer will be re-elected as Manitowoc County’s County Executive to another four-year term.

Re-elected by a margin of 57% to 43%.

(Correct)

5: “An Institutional Magazine” like TIME, Newsweek, or U.S. News & World Report will either close its doors and end the magazine or go completely digital.

Newsweek was sold for $1 to the husband of a California Democratic Congresswoman and then merged with Tina Brown’s “The Daily Beast.”  It still produces a weekly, but it’s clearly on a downward spiral.

UPDATE FROM COMMENTS – Steveegg points out to me that U.S. News & World Report is indeed going completely digital after it’s December issue; the statement from the publishers is here.  It came out in early November.  I was sort of busy at that time.

(Correct)

6: The only Wisconsin sports team (Pro or Division I) to either win or get close to winning a sports championship will be UW-Madison’s Women’s Hockey Team.

Right school, right sport, wrong gender.  The UW-Madison’s MEN’s Hockey team made the NCAA Championship, but lost it to Boston College with a score of 5-0.

(Half-Correct)

6a: UW-Whitewater will have its third consecutive D-3 Football Championship match-up against Mount Union.

The match-up (Actually the 6th consecutive) happened, like clockwork, on December 18th.  UW-Whitewater was the victor, just like in 2009.

(Correct)

7: The NFL and the NFLPA will not reach a new collective bargaining agreement, increasing the chances of the 2010 season being “Uncapped” and the 2011 season being possibly played by replacement players.

The 2010 season was indeed “Uncapped” — it’s how the Vikings were able to increase Brett Favre’s salary by $3M without a moment’s notice — and despite talk of a “CBA” by the next Super Bowl, no new one currently exists.

(Correct)

8:  Sheboygan Mayor Bob Ryan stays put and is not removed from office.

Still there and glad to hear he sought help for his dependency.

(Correct)

9) Neither the Packers or the Vikings are the NFC representative to Super Bowl XLIV.

The Saints did.  Winning the game over the Colts.

(Correct)

10) “Iron Man 2” out-performs the original at the box office.

Opening Weekend “Iron Man” – $98,618,668.  Opening Weekend “Iron Man 2” – $128,122,480.

(Correct)

11) For the second straight year, Fox Broadcast wins the ratings battle of the four major broadcast networks.  NBC reconsiders the move of Jay Leno to 10 Eastern/9 Central.

The train wreck of the most-recent season of “American Idol,”  just barely put Fox above CBS for the year.  Had the Leno-NBC stuff spot-on within a month of the original post.

(Correct)

12) Something called “Health Insurance Reform” passes both chambers of Congress, but it never is enacted as it is held up perpetually in the Courts.

ObamaCare came to pass in March of this year, and the lawsuits followed.  Already the one in Virginia has struck a possible deathblow to the Individual Mandate and the big one in Florida (That’s the one with 22-plus Attorney Generals, soon to include Wisconsin’s J.B Van Hollen, suing in Federal Court.) is set to be heard in the new year.

(Correct)

13) Justice John Paul Stevens will retire from the Supreme Court of the United States.

Yeah, this was a no-brainer.  It’s why I predicted it.  Greetings Associate Justice Kagan.

(Correct)

14) A major social network (Facebook, Twitter, MySpace) will go out of business.

Sadly, my hoped demise of MySpace did not come to pass; but I have yet to run into anyone older than 25 who admits to still having a “MySpace.”

(Incorrect)

15) The GOP will capture the State Senate by capturing at least two seats and the State Assembly by capturing five or six seats while losing only the Brett Davis seat.

GOP actually captured four seats (5th, 21st, 23rd, and 29th) and retained the one seat Democrats thought they had a shot at — the 1st with the return of Frank Lasee to state politics.   As for the Assembly, the GOP gained 13 seats and we saw the 80th Assembly District fall into Democratic hands.

(Correct)

16) Scott Walker wins the Governor’s election 52% to 48% over Tom Barrett.

Walker won the Governor’s election by a 52% to 47% margin.

(Correct)

17) J.B. Van Hollen wins re-election as Wisconsin’s Attorney General.

Van Hollen beat Scott Hassett 58% to 42%.

(Correct)

18) Dawn Marie Sass doesn’t survive her primary challenger for re-election for State Treasurer.  (No prediction for General election since GOP candidate Joe Punzel just announced he was withdrawing from the race.)

Marie Sass’ primary opponent got weighed down in a scandal if I remember correctly and dropped out.  She would go on the lose to Kurt Schuller for the State Treasurer position.

(Incorrect)

19) Russ Feingold is re-elected to the U.S. Senate.

Never before have I been more proud to have helped prove myself wrong.

(Incorrect)

20) Despite headlines in Politico and the MSM, desires of liberal Democrats, and noise made by fights between the NRSC/RNC/NRCC and the blog RedState and others, no “Civil War” ever materializes between “Establishment Republicans” and “the Tea Party Movement” in 2010.

Do I need to go into the countless media headlines which proved me right?

(Correct)

21) GOP nonetheless captures four to seven Senate seats.  One of them being Connecticut’s Chris Dodd who refuses to retire or step aside to help ensure the seat stays in Democratic hands.  The GOP captures between 25 to 30 House seats.  In Wisconsin, history repeats itself, but not in a manner Steve Kagen wants.  Like in 1978, a Roth defeats a two-term Democrat in WI-08 who used two straight cycles of anti-Republican sentiment to stay in Congress.  In WI-03, Kapanke makes it close, but comes up short.  While in WI-07, Sean Duffy fails in his bid, but is close enough he’s put at the top of the list of “go-to guys” to run for the seat when Obey final retires.

Okay, let’s break this down….

GOP gained 6 U.S. Senate seats.

GOP gained 63 House seats.

Chris Dodd retired, his seat won by a guy who made up a story he served in Vietnam but never did over the wife of the WWE guy.  (Connecticut politics used to be so boring until 2006…)

Kagen lost, but to Reid Ribble who beat Roth by a 2 to1 margin in the GOP Primary.

Obey retired in a move no one saw was coming in May of 2010 and Duffy captured the seat in 2010 over a lackluster campaign by Julie Lassa.

Kapanke made it close, but came up short.

(One-Quarter Correct)

22) Speaking of Congressional retirements, talk begins to swirl after November about Sensenbrenner, Petri, Obey, and Kohl all being possible retirements.

In the past month, we’ve all seen the begging of Madison liberals to get Herb Kohl to retire to bring back Russ Feingold and I’ve heard ponders about Petri hanging it up which I don’t buy.

Obey already is gone, and Sensenbrenner is wished retired by liberals throughout the state.

(Half Correct)

23) I finally breakdown and buy one of the following tech devices this year: A Digital SLR camera, an HD TV of 720P or more, or the new rumored Apple tablet.

Bought none of the above.  Got a new Toshiba laptop instead.  Probably getting the D-SLR camera and TV in 2011, waiting until I need and iPad to get an iPad.

(Incorrect)

24) There will be more talk about Brewers GM Doug Melvin’s off-season moves (or lack thereof) than Packers GM Ted Thompson’ off-season moves (or lack thereof).

Actually thought I had blown this one, and then Melvin makes the trade for Zach Greinke and makes the 2011 Brewers pitching rotation a potential force to be reckoned with.

(Correct)

The Cardinals again repeat as NL Central Champions.  The Phillies win the World Series.

We saw the return of “The Big Red Machine” as Cincinnati is crowned NL Central Champions, Phillies lose in the NLCS to the eventual World Series Champion San Francisco Giants.

(Incorrect)

25) Neither Steven Avery or Brandon Dassey will be granted a new trial for the murder of Teresa Halbach.

Avery was denied his request for a new trial in January (he’s appealing that decision); Dassey saw his request denied earlier this month.  No word if Dassey is going to appeal.

(Correct)

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  • 5: “An Institutional Magazine” like TIME, Newsweek, or U.S. News & World Report will either close its doors and end the magazine or go completely digital.

    The last regularly-scheduled printed edition of U.S. News & World Report was the December 2010 issue, with other magazines (notably, Time) being delivered to subscribers to fulfill the obligations and the few remaining single “special issues” only being sold at newsstands. Give yourself a full-out “correct” on that one.

  • 125

    you did well enough that you don’t need to cheat!
    #12 my insurance company tells me parts are already implemented.