Florida GOP Senate Primary: Rubio Tied with Crist

That non-stop knocking noise you're hearing is staffers of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) banging their head up against the walls of the Reagan Republican Center (just to the east of Union Station in Washington, DC) after this poll came out from Rasmussen yesterday.

Governor Charlie Crist and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio are now tied in the 2010 race for the Republican Senate nomination in Florida.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely GOP Primary voters finds Crist and Rubio each with 43% of the vote. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided.

Crist’s support has fallen from 53% in August to 49% in October. Rasmussen Reports noted at the time, “The fact that Crist has fallen below 50% in a primary against a lesser known opponent suggests potential vulnerability.”

Rubio’s name recognition has grown in recent months and he is now viewed Very Favorably by 34% of Likely Primary Voters. That’s up from 18% in August. As his name recognition increased, Rubio’s support in the polls has jumped from 31% in August to 43% today.

Crist, well known throughout the state, has seen his ratings go in the opposite direction. Just 19% now have a Very Favorable opinion of him, a figure that represents a double digit decline since August.

Crist angered many conservatives in the state when he embraced President Obama’s $787-billion economic stimulus plan. While the Republican establishment has endorsed Crist, many prominent GOP conservatives including Mike Huckabee, South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint and former Bush adviser Karl Rove are backing Rubio.

Nationally, the GOP’s Florida Senate race is being watched as a test of the new “Tea Party” mood among many conservative and traditionally Republican voters. The GOP Primary is scheduled for August 24.

Further breakdown of the poll shows that Rubio leads among Men by 12 points, while Crist leads among Women by 11 points.  Rubio now has a lead (52 percent) among self-identified conservatives.

The NRSC officially endorsed Crist last year for the seat earlier this year when former Senator Martinez retired out his ability to fund raise (His first FEC report showed him pull in $3 million) and his popularity as Florida's Governor.  Since that time, Rubio entered the race and received the support for former Governor Jeb Bush, South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint, former Bush advisor Karl Rove, and a host of other big-name conservatives.

A poll like this puts a lot of egg on the face of the NRSC for getting involved in a primary where they didn't need to belong.  It's likely a lesson for all the campaign committees; irregardless of party, should do in this and every cycle here on in.