Sampling Ruled Out in 2010 Census

Good. The Census has always been a head count of the United States, not a statistical count.

President Barack Obama's pick to lead the Census Bureau on Friday ruled out the use of statistical sampling in the 2010 head count, seeking to allay GOP concerns that he might be swayed to put politics over science.

Robert M. Groves, a veteran survey researcher from the University of Michigan, also testified during his confirmation hearing that he remains worried about fixing a persistent undercount of hard-to-reach populations, typically minorities living in dense areas who tend to vote for Democrats.

He told the Senate Homeland Security committee that the success of the 2010 census will hinge on an aggressive outreach campaign, but did not say whether he would push for a government halt to immigration raids — as the Census Bureau successfully did in 2000.

"This is an area of great concern," Groves said, suggesting a media campaign that might utilize government leaders and even Obama to encourage people to respond. "Groups cannot believe the participation in the census will harm them."

Groves, 60, faces a relatively smooth confirmation due partly to Democrats' strong majority in the Senate.

But that hasn't stopped House Republicans, who have been vocal in expressing concern about Groves. As a former census associate director, Groves pushed for sampling in the 1990s to make up for an undercount of millions of minorities but was later overruled by the Republican Commerce secretary, who called the move "political tampering."

On Friday, Groves said he would not pursue statistical adjustment next year because it is now legally barred for the use of apportioning House seats.

Groves also said adjustments won't be used in 2010 to redraw congressional boundaries, because there is simply no time to prepare for it.

"I am pursuing this post because I believe strongly that this country needs an objective, nonpartisan, professional Census Bureau," he said. "If the information is believed to be slanted by partisan influence, the credibility of the statistics is destroyed."

Before the 1990 Census, it was bureaucrats who pushed for sampling.  Before the 2000 Census, it was the Clinton Administration.  No one knows if sampling will even give an accurate count.  What most statisticians do know is that it will benefit the Democrats greatly politically.

No wonder they like it.  For more thoughts, check out this piece I wrote Wednesday for the Heritage Foundation's Foundry blog.

For the liberal point of view, the gang at 538.com seems to buy the "there's no time argument."