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Thoughts on Last Night

I’m much calmer than you’d think I’d be.  Frankly, I have sib­lings who are more “What the hell?” than I am today.

It’s not that the nation or Wis­con­sin flipped back to “Lib­eral” after 2010 to give us four more years of Barack Obama or six years of Sen. Tammy Bald­win, it was a com­bi­na­tion of things, many of which you could see light-years away if you didn’t wish to blind your­self in the par­ti­san glow and actu­ally give hon­est analy­sis about them.

1)  I called the GOP los­ing and Obama re-elected in 2011, while in a job inter­view in Wash­ing­ton, DC (I got the job too. It was con­tract PR work I did before my cur­rent gig.). 

To put it mildly, after 2010, the GOP had an entire crew of second-stringers run­ning for Pres­i­dent in an envi­ron­ment which looked hor­ri­ble against an incum­bent about to spend $1B, with near uni­ver­sal media love and where frankly most friendly pun­dits and activists were beg­ging oth­ers to get in the race.  That doesn’t exude con­fi­dence, it’s a recipe for pend­ing disaster.

2)  Mitt’s August and Sep­tem­ber didn’t help.

The RNC Con­ven­tion was a bust, fol­lowed by a month of inac­tion, inac­tiv­ity, and lit­tle pub­lic events.  When your best moment is in Octo­ber, in the debates, you have to won­der if it was too late to turn the ship right towards vic­tory by then.

3)  Tammy just ran the bet­ter campaign.

When I’m hav­ing to talk my own father against a vote for a Madi­son lib­eral, you know there’s trou­ble brew­ing.  She dom­i­nated the air­waves — espe­cially the Green Bay mar­ket (more on that later) — after the pri­mary and never let it go.  I think I still can’t tell you what the woman is going to actu­ally do as a sen­a­tor from her ad cam­paign.  All you can tell was “Tommy did this, Tommy did that.”  “Tommy served in the Bush admin­is­tra­tion, remem­ber how much you hate him?”

A lot of folks are going to have a “What the ****?” moment in a cou­ple of years when they real­ize what they just sent to Wash­ing­ton as their junior Senator.

4)  Name is not enough anymore.

I love Tommy Thomp­son, I respect Tommy Thomp­son, but how the hell his cam­paign made lit­tle to no effort in out­reach with young peo­ple is going to haunt me for a while.  18 year old col­lege fresh­men were 4 when he was last on the bal­lot.  The first time I could vote in 1998, was the last time he ran statewide.

His team did lit­tle to intro­duce him to a demo­graphic he prac­ti­cally helped edu­cate while also hop­ing “I’m Tommy Thomp­son, remem­ber me?” could carry the day.  Clearly, it didn’t.

5)  The graphic which will haunt the NRSC.

Thanks Mis­souri Repub­li­cans and Tea Party Pin-head purists.

The largest shock for me in appar­ent GOP sen­ate losses is North Dakota, mostly because the rest of the statewide races went so heav­ily for the rest of the ticket there.

6)  For the big races, ticket-splitting in Wis­con­sin is dead.

The trend started in 2010, it appears to con­tinue in 2012.

Obama vic­tory in Wis­con­sin — 201,827.  Bald­win vic­tory in Wis­con­sin — 164,947.

7)  The state was lost for the GOP in Brown County, the Fox Val­ley and the Lakeshore.

How best to describe this…

Ah, let’s just go w/ the numbers…

Dane County

Dur­ing the Walker Recall in June, Tom Bar­rett got 69.1 per­cent of the vote.  Last night, Barack Obama got around 71 per­cent of the vote, while Tammy Bald­win got around 69 per­cent of the vote.

Brown County

Dur­ing the Walker Recall in June, Scott Walker got 59.7 per­cent of the vote.  Last night, Mitt Rom­ney got around 50 per­cent of the vote, while Tommy Thomp­son got around 49 per­cent of the vote.

Out­agamie County

Dur­ing the Walker Recall in June, Scott Walker got 61.3 per­cent of the vote.  Last night, Mitt Rom­ney got around 50 per­cent of the vote, while Tommy Thomp­son also received around 50 per­cent of the vote.

Door County

Dur­ing the Walker Recall in June, Scott Walker got 56.8 per­cent of the vote.  Last night, Barack Obama got around 53 per­cent of the vote, while Tammy Bald­win got around 51 per­cent of the vote.

Man­i­towoc County

Dur­ing the Walker Recall in June, Scott Walker got 64.1 per­cent of the vote.  Last night, Mitt Rom­ney got around 51 per­cent of the vote, while Tommy Thomp­son got around 49 per­cent of the vote.

She­boy­gan County

Dur­ing the Walker Recall in June, Scott Walker got 64.3 per­cent of the vote.  Last night, Mitt Rom­ney got around 54 per­cent of the vote, while Tommy Thomp­son also received around 54 per­cent of the vote.

Yeah, I think I’ve proved my point…

8]  Dale Schultz is about to find out who his real friends are.

A king at 17, a jester at 18.  Oh, what a life.

Ques­tion going into 2014: Will the 17th State Sen­ate Dis­trict now be a top pri­or­ity for Democ­rats (Both Obama and Bald­win car­ried it with around 55 per­cent by a crude look-over this morn­ing) since most of the “usual” swing dis­tricts (5,9,21,23, 29) look to have been locked up either through strong incum­bents or redis­trict­ing?  The think­ing being “Do they opt for a col­league who will vote with them 100 per­cent of the time, or one who only votes with them when he wants media attention?”

Short Hits:

9)  Expect recounts in Assem­bly Dis­tricts 70 (Vruwink only leads by 170 votes) and pos­si­bly in 93 (Petryk leads by 500).

10)  The Min­ing Bill is now going to hap­pen.  Expect the envi­ron­men­tal groups to sue while the ink dries on Walker’s signature.

11)  Jess King goes back to Oshkosh, prob­a­bly as the only can­di­date Democ­rats think they have for when Petri retires in the CD-06 since Gor­don Hintz is dam­aged goods and stuck in the state Assem­bly, rep­re­sent­ing Oshkosh until he gets bored.

12)  The biggest stat nation­ally appears to still be about who do vot­ers blame for the econ­omy.  Democ­rats have prob­a­bly just won their last elec­tion run­ning against George W. Bush.

13)  Can’t wait to see who gets blamed for “Los­ing the Recovery.”

14) Some­one needs to get the Club for Growth and the NRSC together and get peace talks going.  The crap over these past two cycles needs to stop.

15)  Can you name the can­di­date Democ­rats will run against Scott Walker in two years?  Yeah, didn’t think so.

16)  Would Hovde have won?  Maybe, he would have had the money to sur­vive the August bom­bard­ment Tommy had to go through, but I think you would have seen Baldwin’s cam­paign come out with a ton of anti-Wall Street ads.

17)  Would Neu­mann have won?  Yeah…only in Erick Erickson’s dreams.  They would have called him the loser of Wis­con­sin faster than they called Mitt last night.

18)  It’s hard to call this a man­date.  I’m see­ing folks com­ment that Obama got not only less votes than in 2008, but enough votes were dif­fer­ent, Obama lost a num­ber of votes equal to the entire vote of Cal­i­for­nia and Kansas combined.

19)  Does Barack even have the abil­ity to reach across the aisle?  He hasn’t shown it in over the past two years, what makes any­one believe he will do it in the next four?

20)  Time for the GOP to grow up on out­reach to the His­panic votes.  We have Rubio and Cruz, time to actu­ally use them!

Finally…I’m expect­ing 2014 to be big for the GOP.  We’re on the verge of an eco­nomic tank­ing which only the blind are too igno­rant to see.  Not to men­tion, second-term mid-term elec­tions for any incum­bent Pres­i­dent his­tor­i­cally have been blood­baths for his party.

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  • han­kdog

    Here is one point you missed.

    In the week lead­ing up to Tues­day our house received an aver­age of 17 calls a day from the NRA,(last Fri­day it was 6 in 15 min­utes) telling me I was in dan­ger of los­ing my guns, my free­dom and pos­si­bly my man­hood. All my friends and neigh­bors were sub­jected to the same abuse. I don’t know what demo­graphic they were after but it didn’t work on these middle-class, gun own­ing hunters in NE WI.

    As long as I am typ­ing, here is another one:

    I don’t know if you watch the Green Bay TV mar­ket, but Tommy ugly puss was all over the air waves the last cou­ple weeks. He came across as an old angry buf­foon, short-tempered and tongue tied. And these were his ads. Folks up here are sick of that atti­tude after all the recall non­sense. He sure didn’t pick up on that feel­ing and it cost him.

  • greencarman2000

    15) Can you name the can­di­date Democ­rats will run against Scott Walker in two years? Yeah, didn’t think so.

    Fein­gold. Book it!

    19) Does Barack even have the abil­ity to reach across the aisle? He hasn’t shown it in over the past two years, what makes any­one believe he will do it in the next four?

    Why should he? R’s don’t seem intent on compromising.

    I love Tommy Thomp­son, I respect Tommy Thompson…”

    And he is a true-blooded con­ser­v­a­tive in what way???

    A lot of folks are going to have a “What the ****?” moment in a cou­ple of years when they real­ize what they just sent to Wash­ing­ton as their junior Senator.”

    No, that’s John­son, the senior senator.