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Thoughts on Last Night

I’m much calmer than you’d think I’d be.  Frankly, I have siblings who are more “What the hell?” than I am today.

It’s not that the nation or Wisconsin flipped back to “Liberal” after 2010 to give us four more years of Barack Obama or six years of Sen. Tammy Baldwin, it was a combination of things, many of which you could see light-years away if you didn’t wish to blind yourself in the partisan glow and actually give honest analysis about them.

1)  I called the GOP losing and Obama re-elected in 2011, while in a job interview in Washington, DC (I got the job too. It was contract PR work I did before my current gig.). 

To put it mildly, after 2010, the GOP had an entire crew of second-stringers running for President in an environment which looked horrible against an incumbent about to spend $1B, with near universal media love and where frankly most friendly pundits and activists were begging others to get in the race.  That doesn’t exude confidence, it’s a recipe for pending disaster.

2)  Mitt’s August and September didn’t help.

The RNC Convention was a bust, followed by a month of inaction, inactivity, and little public events.  When your best moment is in October, in the debates, you have to wonder if it was too late to turn the ship right towards victory by then.

3)  Tammy just ran the better campaign.

When I’m having to talk my own father against a vote for a Madison liberal, you know there’s trouble brewing.  She dominated the airwaves — especially the Green Bay market (more on that later) — after the primary and never let it go.  I think I still can’t tell you what the woman is going to actually do as a senator from her ad campaign.  All you can tell was “Tommy did this, Tommy did that.”  “Tommy served in the Bush administration, remember how much you hate him?”

A lot of folks are going to have a “What the ****?” moment in a couple of years when they realize what they just sent to Washington as their junior Senator.

4)  Name is not enough anymore.

I love Tommy Thompson, I respect Tommy Thompson, but how the hell his campaign made little to no effort in outreach with young people is going to haunt me for a while.  18 year old college freshmen were 4 when he was last on the ballot.  The first time I could vote in 1998, was the last time he ran statewide.

His team did little to introduce him to a demographic he practically helped educate while also hoping “I’m Tommy Thompson, remember me?” could carry the day.  Clearly, it didn’t.

5)  The graphic which will haunt the NRSC.

Thanks Missouri Republicans and Tea Party Pin-head purists.

The largest shock for me in apparent GOP senate losses is North Dakota, mostly because the rest of the statewide races went so heavily for the rest of the ticket there.

6)  For the big races, ticket-splitting in Wisconsin is dead.

The trend started in 2010, it appears to continue in 2012.

Obama victory in Wisconsin — 201,827.  Baldwin victory in Wisconsin — 164,947.

7)  The state was lost for the GOP in Brown County, the Fox Valley and the Lakeshore.

How best to describe this…

Ah, let’s just go w/ the numbers…

Dane County

During the Walker Recall in June, Tom Barrett got 69.1 percent of the vote.  Last night, Barack Obama got around 71 percent of the vote, while Tammy Baldwin got around 69 percent of the vote.

Brown County

During the Walker Recall in June, Scott Walker got 59.7 percent of the vote.  Last night, Mitt Romney got around 50 percent of the vote, while Tommy Thompson got around 49 percent of the vote.

Outagamie County

During the Walker Recall in June, Scott Walker got 61.3 percent of the vote.  Last night, Mitt Romney got around 50 percent of the vote, while Tommy Thompson also received around 50 percent of the vote.

Door County

During the Walker Recall in June, Scott Walker got 56.8 percent of the vote.  Last night, Barack Obama got around 53 percent of the vote, while Tammy Baldwin got around 51 percent of the vote.

Manitowoc County

During the Walker Recall in June, Scott Walker got 64.1 percent of the vote.  Last night, Mitt Romney got around 51 percent of the vote, while Tommy Thompson got around 49 percent of the vote.

Sheboygan County

During the Walker Recall in June, Scott Walker got 64.3 percent of the vote.  Last night, Mitt Romney got around 54 percent of the vote, while Tommy Thompson also received around 54 percent of the vote.

Yeah, I think I’ve proved my point…

8]  Dale Schultz is about to find out who his real friends are.

A king at 17, a jester at 18.  Oh, what a life.

Question going into 2014: Will the 17th State Senate District now be a top priority for Democrats (Both Obama and Baldwin carried it with around 55 percent by a crude look-over this morning) since most of the “usual” swing districts (5,9,21,23, 29) look to have been locked up either through strong incumbents or redistricting?  The thinking being “Do they opt for a colleague who will vote with them 100 percent of the time, or one who only votes with them when he wants media attention?”

Short Hits:

9)  Expect recounts in Assembly Districts 70 (Vruwink only leads by 170 votes) and possibly in 93 (Petryk leads by 500).

10)  The Mining Bill is now going to happen.  Expect the environmental groups to sue while the ink dries on Walker’s signature.

11)  Jess King goes back to Oshkosh, probably as the only candidate Democrats think they have for when Petri retires in the CD-06 since Gordon Hintz is damaged goods and stuck in the state Assembly, representing Oshkosh until he gets bored.

12)  The biggest stat nationally appears to still be about who do voters blame for the economy.  Democrats have probably just won their last election running against George W. Bush.

13)  Can’t wait to see who gets blamed for “Losing the Recovery.”

14) Someone needs to get the Club for Growth and the NRSC together and get peace talks going.  The crap over these past two cycles needs to stop.

15)  Can you name the candidate Democrats will run against Scott Walker in two years?  Yeah, didn’t think so.

16)  Would Hovde have won?  Maybe, he would have had the money to survive the August bombardment Tommy had to go through, but I think you would have seen Baldwin’s campaign come out with a ton of anti-Wall Street ads.

17)  Would Neumann have won?  Yeah…only in Erick Erickson’s dreams.  They would have called him the loser of Wisconsin faster than they called Mitt last night.

18)  It’s hard to call this a mandate.  I’m seeing folks comment that Obama got not only less votes than in 2008, but enough votes were different, Obama lost a number of votes equal to the entire vote of California and Kansas combined.

19)  Does Barack even have the ability to reach across the aisle?  He hasn’t shown it in over the past two years, what makes anyone believe he will do it in the next four?

20)  Time for the GOP to grow up on outreach to the Hispanic votes.  We have Rubio and Cruz, time to actually use them!

Finally…I’m expecting 2014 to be big for the GOP.  We’re on the verge of an economic tanking which only the blind are too ignorant to see.  Not to mention, second-term mid-term elections for any incumbent President historically have been bloodbaths for his party.

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  • hankdog

    Here is one point you missed.

    In the week leading up to Tuesday our house received an average of 17 calls a day from the NRA,(last Friday it was 6 in 15 minutes) telling me I was in danger of losing my guns, my freedom and possibly my manhood. All my friends and neighbors were subjected to the same abuse. I don’t know what demographic they were after but it didn’t work on these middle-class, gun owning hunters in NE WI.

    As long as I am typing, here is another one:

    I don’t know if you watch the Green Bay TV market, but Tommy ugly puss was all over the air waves the last couple weeks. He came across as an old angry buffoon, short-tempered and tongue tied. And these were his ads. Folks up here are sick of that attitude after all the recall nonsense. He sure didn’t pick up on that feeling and it cost him.

  • greencarman2000

    15) Can you name the can­di­date Democ­rats will run against Scott Walker in two years? Yeah, didn’t think so.

    Feingold. Book it!

    19) Does Barack even have the abil­ity to reach across the aisle? He hasn’t shown it in over the past two years, what makes any­one believe he will do it in the next four?

    Why should he? R’s don’t seem intent on compromising.

    “I love Tommy Thomp­son, I respect Tommy Thomp­son…”

    And he is a true-blooded conservative in what way???

    “A lot of folks are going to have a “What the ****?” moment in a cou­ple of years when they real­ize what they just sent to Wash­ing­ton as their junior Senator.”

    No, that’s Johnson, the senior senator.