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Tarrance Group Memo: Ribble Looks Like Lock for Re-Election

Admittedly, anyone with half a brain knows this already. But it’s interesting that it made this morning’s “Morning Score” from Politico.

The Tarrance Group, the Republican polling firm that did Walker’s polling, argues in a one-page memo that Democrat Jamie Wall faces an uphill climb against Reid Ribble in the newly-drawn congressional district. “In 2010, Scott Walker received 56.3% of the vote of 260,463 cast. In the 2012 recall election, a goal of 57% was established early on for this region. On recall election day, however, the Governor well over performed the goals in this district, hitting 61.5% of just over 308K votes cast. Statewide, turnout was roughly half way between Presidential-year and Gubernatorial-year turnout, and the same goes for this district. Given Walker’s strong performance, however, the roughly 190K votes he received here would have been enough to win this district even assuming Presidential-year turnout. This fall, Congressman Ribble is well-positioned to build on Governor Walker’s strong performance.”

Tarrance Group has also been traditionally the polling firm used by former Gov. Tommy Thompson.

This is the county-by-county breakdown that was released.  Admittedly, I don’t see Brown Co. going as hard for Ribble as it did Walker.  Then again, 60% there is just mind-blowing for the swing area of a swing state.  Though, on second thought, it probably speaks volumes about the collapse of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin outside the I-94 corridor of Madison and Milwaukee.

The Duffy Campaign did something similar with the new-look 7th Congressional District after the recall result.  The only difference between their memo and this one, is that people in DC will actually take this one much more seriously.

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