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Category “2012 WI-07 Race”

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Has the DCCC Bailed on WI-07 WI-08?

Need to confirm this news, but Matt Mackowiak is a connected GOP consultant in Texas and tends not to be wrong about these sorts of things.  He’s often quoted as a source by Politico.

If he’s right, then it pretty much says the DCCC has determined that Pat Kreitlow’s on his own and will likely lose to freshman Cong. Sean Duffy. The amusing part for me about that news is that it’s shown that “capper’s” little push this past weekend on anti-Duffy posts appear to be a last minute oppo drop of a flailing campaign.  (Just a guess, but hey, who else would Zielinski send it to for eyeballs?)

But hey, Liebs got to post a decade-plus old naked picture of Duffy which was explained as “youthful idiocy” years ago.  Must have been on our favorite AFSCME hack’s bucket list.

Bit of an insight into the other seats.  NC-08 is currently held by a Democrat, but redistricting in North Carolina has made it much more Republican.  The Cook Political Report ranks the seat for this November as “Leans Republican.”

FL-18 is the seat held by former Army Lt. Col. Allen West, he has been a target for many uber-liberals who hate the very thought of a black conservative.  Cook has the race as “Republican Toss-up.”

UPDATE:  Roll Call confirms two of the three Mackowiak lists, FL-18 and NC-08.  Nothing yet however on WI-07.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee canceled a week of airtime in Rep. Allen West’s (R-Fla.) district starting Oct. 9, according to multiple sources tracking the buy.

Democrats cite a substantial House Majority PAC buy — $1 million over a few weeks including Oct. 9 — as the reason they pulled their reservation in the West Palm Beach market that week.

It’s almost never a good sign when a committee cuts airtime for a candidate. The cancellation comes on the heels of the DCCC’s move to cancel a second weeklong buy for Rep. Larry Kissell’s (D-N.C.) tough re-election bid.

But unlike Kissell’s bid, the Florida race remains competitive — at least compared with other Democratic pickup opportunities (Roll Call rates it as Leans Republican). And the DCCC has given no other indication that it’s ready to give up on the race, either.

I’ll keep looking.

UPDATE II:  Apparently, it’s not WI-07 the DCCC and others running ads are abandoning, it’s WI-08.  Which frankly, makes more sense to me at this point in the campaign.  At least, that’s what Moe Lane of RedState was able to uncover.

The Service Employees International Union has canceled a previously scheduled television ad buy in support of businessman Jamie Wall’s (D) challenge of Rep. Reid Ribble (R).

Roll Call has learned from a source monitoring Wisconsin advertising markets that the union will no longer follow through with its approximately $130,000 reservation in the Green Bay media market, which covers the 8th district. But the same source noted that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is still scheduled to go on television in Green Bay on Oct. 9.

The House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, had previously canceled a $130,000 television ad-buy reservation in mid-September.

A buy by October 9th is practically a promise to pull the money later.  Time will tell if they do.

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Hey, Remember “Healthy Wisconsin?”

Pat Kreitlow sure as hell hoped you didn’t.

Too bad the National Republican Campaign Committee does, and they are going full barrel on it in their first attack ad against the former TV anchorman turned state  Senator turned…um, what exactly is Kreitlow’s job currently?

(I never fully understood why a freshman state senator in a swing district would willingly want to be the QB of a total socialized medicine bill, but Kreitlow’s ego was more than willing to oblige.)

ANNOUNCER: Before Washington gave us ObamaCare,

State Senator Pat Kreitlow tried to give us a government takeover of healthcare here in Wisconsin.

With a $15 billion payroll tax,

A 10 percent tax on employers,

4 percent tax on workers.

It would have been the largest tax increase in Wisconsin history.

Government takeover of healthcare, paid for by higher taxes.

Pat Kreitlow, he’d fit right in, in Washington.

DISCLAIMER: The National Republican Congressional Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising.

Here’s the video:


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Biden’s Two Gaffes in Eau Claire

First of all, good to see that it wasn’t hard to get 3,000 people on a college campus.  You start to wonder if my alma mater is incapable of pulling it off, then you remember it’s a college campus and you move on.

So of course, Vice President Biden was in Eau Claire today, and according to the WisPolitics.com report, naturally made some gaffes.

Here’s where they were:

Biden was preceded by Sen. Kathleen Vineout, D-Alma, and 7th CD candidate Pat Kreitlow. Biden told those in attendance to vote for Kreitlow, though he mispronounced his name.

My guess is it was “Kreet-Low?”  Yeah, I know those German names are so tough, aren’t they?  Especially for the crowd in the East Coast…I should know.

Way to be prepped there Mr. Vice President.

Secondly, the campus of UW-Eau Claire and the overwhelming majority of Eau Claire County are in the 3rd Congressional District, not the 7th where Kreitlow is running.  Has been like that for decades.

Hardly anyone in the gymnasium today will end up being eligible to vote for Kreitlow.

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DPW’s Still Missing Obey

So much so, that it’s the focus of a two-page article at Politico. Most of it insane quotes from DPW’s resident punk Mike Tate — the Chair-Boy Blunder — one begins to wonder how he maintains all the hatred and venom with all that’s on his plate.

There are 87 freshmen in the new class of House Republicans, but Democrats are singling out one for particularly rough treatment: Rep. Sean Duffy.

Both in Washington and in his home state of Wisconsin, Democrats have drawn a bead on the reality-TV-star-turned-Ashland-County-district-attorney-turned-congressman, determined to portray him as a superficial ideologue who’s not ready for primetime. The anti-Duffy effort has picked up in recent weeks as his foes have sought to link him to the controversy surrounding GOP Gov. Scott Walker’s effort to limit the collective bargaining rights of public employees.

Democrats openly acknowledge that their attacks are, in no small part, aimed at knocking the ambitious 39-year-old conservative down a peg and say they want to make sure his northwest Wisconsin House seat doesn’t turn into a launching pad for a future statewide bid. Democratic operatives are privately pledging to wage an aggressive 2012 campaign for his seat and have started floating the names of several potential challengers.

“It’s hard to be a rising star if you’re a one-term congressman, which I think he’s going to be,” said Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Mike Tate, who has helped direct the anti-Duffy offensive.

That’s sure some offensive. Makes you think they have a guy or two ready in the wings to take Duffy on in 2012. But actuality, they’re probably going through what a lot of Republicans — myself included — had with Steve Kagen. The idea the man who replaced “A Legend” or “Good Man” isn’t worthy of filling his shoes.

And let’s be honest with ourselves, Steve Kagen was a chump compared to Mark Green.  As for any similar comparison of Duffy to Kagen, I think we can stop there.  Obey was a cantankerous, old man who never seemed to like anyone.

I for one will never understand how state Democrats held that in a place of high honor.

Frankly, in my opinion, what really irks Tate and Graeme down in Madison about Duffy is this simple fact: Duffy forced Obey’s retirement.

“Duffy pushes their buttons; he’s a little bit of a threat to them,” said Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political scientist. “Democrats are trying to turn him into a one-term congressman before he’s able to become more entrenched.”

One reason for the special attention is that Democrats are seeking to reverse what party officials see as a disturbing trend: Republicans gaining traction in northwest Wisconsin — traditionally a Democratic-leaning area, where former Democratic Rep. Dave Obey, the powerful longtime Appropriations Committee chairman, served for 41 years. On Election Day, in addition to Duffy’s victory, Republicans won three state Assembly seats and two state Senate seats in the area.

“They are just astonished that a Republican could be as strong as Sean Duffy is in northern Wisconsin,” said Wisconsin Republican Party Executive Director Mark Jefferson. “They just feel like if they don’t do something, he’s going to take a toehold.”

“They believe it’s a seat they should hold,” noted Darrin Schmitz, a Madison-based GOP consultant who advises Duffy. “He won a seat Democrats held for many years, and it’s a seat Democrats think they should occupy.”

There’s also a personal dimension to the Duffy drama. Democrats concede that they feel a deep animus toward him born of the notion that the former reality-TV star is simply unfit to succeed a congressional titan like Obey.

“He is a bit of a Hollywood guy who does not fit in that part of the state,” said Tate. “This is a guy who appeared on ‘The Real World.’ He met his wife on ‘Real World/Road Rules.’”

He’s also the guy who made a deal with said wife that if she didn’t get the co-hosting job of “The View” (it went to Elisabeth Hasselback, though Rachel was the other finalist) they would move to Wisconsin and live their life there, raise their kids there, and be happy there.

Last I checked, there’s nothing “Hollywood” about that.

The political reality about WI-07 now, and Democrats know this as much as anyone else, is that Congressional redistricting will make it more Republican-leaning.  DPW and Tate are trying to poison the well, which is fine and expected.  The problem with such a strategy is Duffy is such a likeable, charismatic guy, that the Democrat who comes out of that primary (And there will be a primary this time) will be a raving caricature of rage.

I hear Nick Milroy might be willing to fill that role to a “T.”

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