With the retirement of Tom Petri (R-Fond du Lac), naturally comes the horse race aspects of the new reality. Long has the race been marked either “Safe Republican” or “Solid Republican” when Petri was there. That is no longer the case, but it hardly the “great opportunity” many out-of-state liberals believe it to be.
Moving the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.” All-in-all, a drop of one level, but about a 75 percent chance the GOP is hanging on to the seat.
As mentioned, Rep. Petri’s (R, WI-6) retirement opens up his marginally competitive district, but this is probably not the right year for Democrats to flip it. Obama won about 46% in this district in 2012 (after very narrowly winning it in 2008), and there are only five currently Democratic House districts where Obama did worse. So this doesn’t really fit the profile of a district the Democrats could win in 2014. Petri’s district is very similar to that of another retiring Republican, the aforementioned Rep. Camp (R, MI-4). In fact, Obama’s 2012 performance in the districts was almost identical: He got 45.5% in Camp’s district and 45.8% in Petri’s. So it’s reasonable to make the same ratings change we did when Camp retired: WI-6 goes from Safe Republican to LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
And finally, Rothenberg:
After explaining who the likely candidates are on both sides of the aisle, they come to this conclusion.
For now, we’re maintaining our Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating of the race as Currently Safe for Republicans.
Naturally, this could all change. Liberals seem to be hoping and praying that Glenn Grothman wins the GOP Primary, seeing his tendency to make gaffes their only chance of getting a win here. As I’ve said before, I don’t believe Glenn will win this primary.