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Category “2010 GOP Governor Primary”

FoxNews September 20th, 2010

Dis­clo­sure: Authored by Kurt

This aired on Foxnews this morn­ing if any­one missed it.

Walker on Foxnews

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RPW 2010 Livestream">RPW 2010 Livestream

I’m mostly doing it via Twit­ter.  I find it much eas­ier to type away there than hit­ting the “UPDATE” but­ton over and over again.  Please go there, if you aren’t fol­low­ing me on Twit­ter already.

Last night’s tidbits:

1) The big “CR Leader Defec­tion” is a total dud for the Democ­rats here at RPW.  Espe­cially when you add in the fact — well known to Madi­son insid­ers for weeks — that DPW very likely gave her a job and this stunt was part of the payoff.

2) Best Hos­pi­tal­ity Suite Theme of Night One: Roger Roth for Congress’s German-themed “Roth-toberfest!” Beyond that, the rest of them were pretty hum-drum.

2a) Best Music in Suite: Scott Walker.  Noth­ing beats a live band.

2b) Best Food: Neu­mann, mostly because he’s the only one who had food to serve.

2c) Best Drink: Supe­rior Mayor and Lt. Gov­er­nor Can­di­date Dave Ross.  Sprecher Root Beer Floats baby!

3) The grow­ing CW on both sides in Madi­son, is the Democ­rats have likely already lost the Assembly.

4) Paul Ryan had to leave early.  His mother-in-law passed away last night.  My con­do­lences to Paul, Janna, and the rest of the Ryan family.

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Quick Hits

The Band is Com­ing Back Together

Inter­est­ing new find­ings from a poll via NBC News and the Wall Street Jour­nal.

Repub­li­cans have solid­i­fied sup­port among vot­ers who had drifted from the party in recent elec­tions, putting the GOP in posi­tion for a strong come­back in November’s elec­tions, accord­ing to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

The find­ings sug­gest that pub­lic opin­ion has hard­ened in advance of the 2010 elec­tions, mak­ing it harder for Democ­rats to trans­late their leg­isla­tive suc­cesses or a ten­ta­tively improv­ing U.S. econ­omy into gains among voters.

Repub­li­cans have reassem­bled their coali­tion by recon­nect­ing with inde­pen­dents, seniors, blue-collar vot­ers, sub­ur­ban women and small town and rural voters—all of whom had moved away from the party in the 2006 elec­tions, in which Repub­li­cans lost con­trol of the House. Those voter groups now favor GOP con­trol of Congress.

This data is what it looks like when Repub­li­cans assem­ble what for them is a win­ning coali­tion,” said GOP poll­ster Bill McIn­turff, who con­ducts the sur­vey with Demo­c­ra­tic poll­ster Peter Hart. He said the Repub­li­can alliance appeared to be “firmer and more sub­stan­tial” than ear­lier in the year.

Mr. Hart noted that, to his own party’s detri­ment, a series of major news events and leg­isla­tive achievements—including pas­sage of a sweep­ing health care law, nego­ti­at­ing a nuclear dis­ar­ma­ment treaty with Rus­sia and mak­ing a quick arrest in the Times Square ter­ror­ism attempt—has not mea­sur­ably increased sup­port for Democ­rats. “A lot has hap­pened,” he said, “but the basic dynamic of the 2010 elec­tions seems almost set in concrete.”

A big shift is evi­dent among inde­pen­dents, who at this point in the 2006 cam­paign favored Demo­c­ra­tic con­trol of Con­gress rather than Repub­li­can con­trol, 40% to 24%. Now, inde­pen­dents favor the GOP, 38% to 30%.

Sub­ur­ban women favored Demo­c­ra­tic con­trol four years ago by a 24-point mar­gin. Now, they nar­rowly favor Repub­li­cans win­ning the House. A sim­i­lar turn­around has hap­pened among vot­ers 65 and older.

This is the inverse of where we were four years ago, and in a way that projects to sub­stan­tial Demo­c­ra­tic losses in Novem­ber,” Mr. McIn­turff said.

Bat­ten down the hatches if you’re a Demo­c­rat.  There’s a storm a-comin’.

The Gard Endorse­ment of Neumann

I’m in that “Do Endorse­ments Mat­ter Any­more?” camp (I mean, seri­ously, who cares that Bob Dohnal endorsed Terri McCormick today?  Dohnal hasn’t mat­tered in years…yes Bob, feel free to explain to me oth­er­wise in the com­ments because I know you will)  so I truth­fully won­der if the Gard and Zeuske endorse­ments mat­ter much.

Also, any­one look­ing too deep into the mean­ing of the endorse­ment as some sort of ide­o­log­i­cal fight (Patrick, John Gard is a RINO only in your mind and Mark Belling’s micro­phone, move on already.) is kid­ding them­selves.  There’s been bad blood between Gard and Walker all the way back to their Assem­bly days when Gard was ris­ing through the ranks of lead­er­ship and Walker was a back-bencher.  It’s your clas­sic ego-clash.

An aside, like Wigder­son, I got the same email from Walker Cam­paign Com­mu­ni­ca­tions Direc­tor Jill Bader he got.  It’s stuff like that which makes me say “I like Scott, but I have issues with the Walker Cam­paign” more than I’d like to.

Seri­ously, can both Neu­mann and Walker cam­paign stop act­ing like a bunch of cranky 3rd graders already?  That, or save us all the trou­ble of watch­ing you snipe at each other for the next four months and have the fight to the death like real men?  I hear the Thunderdome’s open to the pub­lic every third Friday.

Deficit at 400% Annual Increase

One won­ders how the print­ing presses haven’t broke down yet…

The United States posted an $82.69 bil­lion deficit in April, nearly four times the $20.91 bil­lion short­fall reg­is­tered in April 2009 and the largest on record for that month, the Trea­sury Depart­ment said on Wednesday.

Out­lays dur­ing April rose to $327.96 bil­lion from $218.75 bil­lion in March and were up from $287.11 bil­lion in April 2009. It was a record level of out­lays for an April.
It was more than twice the $40-billion deficit that Wall Street econ­o­mists sur­veyed by Reuters had fore­cast and was strik­ing since April marks the fil­ing dead­line for indi­vid­ual income taxes that are the main source of gov­ern­ment revenue.

Depart­ment offi­cials said that in prior years, there was a sur­plus dur­ing April in 43 out of the past 56 years.

The gov­ern­ment has now posted 19 con­sec­u­tive monthly bud­get deficits, the longest string of short­falls on record.

For the first seven months of fis­cal 2010, which ends Sep­tem­ber 30, the cumu­la­tive bud­get deficit totals $799.68 bil­lion, down slightly from $802.3 bil­lion in the com­pa­ra­ble period of fis­cal 2009.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64B53W20100512

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Daily Quick Hits

Ricky Mar­tin is Gay

Yeah, didn’t see that one com­ing. (Enough sar­casm there?)

The Lat­est RNC Issue

Clearly, the issue at hand is the RNC’s Finance Depart­ment, and who­ever was the per­son in it who thought okay to approve the $2,000 expen­di­ture at the West Hol­ly­wood club should either be dis­ci­plined or all-out ter­mi­nated.  From indi­ca­tions posted at the Cor­ner, there will be a sack­ing of some sort com­ing shortly.  One thing a lot of Repub­li­can can­di­dates out West (the man at fault seems to be a Cal­i­for­nia direct-mail consultant)

I do think drag­ging in Chair­man Steele into this aspect of the story was unpro­fes­sional of the The Daily Caller, espe­cially since they were back­track­ing on the story as the day went on in regards to the West Hol­ly­wood club.   Though, can we finally have a week where the RNC finances are not a story unto themselves?

What Are the Odds?

In a story about approval rat­ing on Speaker Pelosi, the Wash­ing­ton Post called 1000 peo­ple at ran­dom for their input.  One of them was a “John Murtha of Orlando, Florida, who was quoted in the story.

Obvi­ously the name rang some bells in polit­i­cal cir­cles.  It was weirder than that, it was the son of the very late Con­gress­man.

The Zoo SNAFU (Trade­mark Pending)

Watch­ing the spin from a far on what has to have been the most avoid­able trans­porta­tion prob­lem in Wis­con­sin his­tory is a blast.  The Bar­rett guys look like they’re whin­ing, the Walker guys can’t seem to have enough fun, and lib­eral blog­gers are to the point of depravity.

My favorite is for­mer Norquist aide James Rowen, who seems to think con­ser­v­a­tives are happy the Zoo is a mess (Sorry Jim, were not happy, we’re sim­ply point­ing out it could have been avoid­able.).  Admit­tedly, the irony isn’t lost on me hear­ing a for­mer Norquist aide talk about the Zoo col­laps­ing; since Bar­rett pretty much picked up the torch Norquist had car­ried when it came to high­ways and the Metro Mil­wau­kee area.

The Neu­mann Rumor Mill

Hav­ing worked on cam­paigns before, let’s be clear with our­selves; it wasn’t a cool or smart move.  It’s also not the end of the world for the Neu­mann cam­paign or this young kid’s career.  It’s about a 1.75 out of 10 on the “Worst Things Cam­paigns can do to Each Other” Scale.  It’s ama­teur no doubt, but the last­ing dam­age is neg­li­gi­ble at least.  It’s an act which will be for­got­ten by next month.

The only com­pa­ra­ble thing in pri­mary cam­paigns past I’ve seen (and frankly she’ll be pissed I men­tion this again, but screw it we already hate each other) is when Katie Har­bath was caught start­ing a whis­per cam­paign of sorts June 2007 within the Rudy Giu­liani Pres­i­den­tial Cam­paign against the Mitt Rom­ney cam­paign with send­ing an email to blog­gers about a story in a Salt Lake City news­pa­per about “The White Horse Proph­esy,” a dis­cred­ited leg­end about a Mor­mon in the White House.  At the end, it caused a per­sonal phone call of apol­ogy from Rudy to Mitt for the email.

What both Walker and Neu­mann cam­paigns (and blog­gers sid­ing with either side) should do is just let the story go.  The dam­age is done — mostly self-inflicted to Neu­mann — and there’s not much else to gain by bring­ing it up again. If there’s been a behind-the-scenes apol­ogy between both men, the better.

As for the staffer, buck up.  You screwed up.  It hap­pens.  Now just keep you head down and do your job to the best of your ability.

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Neumann Launches First Ad in Governor’s Race

All-in-all, it’s not a bad ad, but it also shows how far behind (or in need of Name ID) Mark Neumann’s cam­paign could be against Scott Walker in the GOP pri­mary if this is already mak­ing the air­waves in Wisconsin.

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The More They Push Barrett, The Less This Makes Sense to Me

Ok, let’s be hon­est with our­selves.  Doyle and Bar­rett want the Mayor of Mil­wau­kee to take the reins of the fail­ing Mil­wau­kee Pub­lic Schools Sys­tem.  It is well-known that Doyle is not shy about prais­ing Bar­rett about being “his guy” to suc­ceed him as the next Demo­c­ra­tic Gov­er­nor of the State of Wisconsin.

Par­don me for ask­ing, but if Barrett’s out run­ning for Gov­er­nor for most of next year, who the hell is sup­posed to be over­see­ing MPS?

Milwaukee’s mayor would have the power to not only appoint the city school system’s super­in­ten­dent but also set its annual tax levy under a leg­isla­tive pro­posal Gov. Jim Doyle detailed Tuesday.

Flanked by five Milwaukee-area leg­is­la­tors, Doyle released more com­po­nents of what he said would be within a bill intro­duced in the Leg­is­la­ture giv­ing the mayor a strong hand in gov­er­nance of Mil­wau­kee Pub­lic Schools.

With lit­tle time left in the leg­isla­tive ses­sion and the bill still in the draft­ing stage, Doyle said he may call a spe­cial ses­sion this year to con­sider may­oral takeover of MPS.

I think we all feel this incred­i­ble sense of urgency that this has to be done,” Doyle said.

The plan would not just give the mayor the abil­ity to fire and hire the MPS super­in­ten­dent, accord­ing to a hand­out drafted by the gov­er­nor and leg­is­la­tors. It also would move author­ity over bud­get and fis­cal issues, cur­ricu­lum, facil­ity deci­sions and col­lec­tive bar­gain­ing from the School Board to the superintendent.

The mayor would set the annual tax levy.

School Board mem­bers would pro­vide over­sight and per­form duties related to com­mu­nity rela­tions and stu­dent dis­ci­pline. A ref­er­en­dum to reau­tho­rize may­oral con­trol would be held after seven years.

Even though a bill that would give the mayor a hand in the schools has not yet been intro­duced, Mayor Tom Bar­rett said in an inter­view Tues­day that he has been talk­ing with oth­ers about what char­ac­ter­is­tics he wants in the next schools super­in­ten­dent. He called on the School Board to post­pone its Nov. 19 dead­line for appli­ca­tions for the MPS super­in­ten­dent posi­tion, which the board is look­ing to fill before Super­in­ten­dent William Andrekopou­los’ depar­ture in June.

Those who have talked to me in pri­vate about this issue pretty much know where I stand.  The idea isn’t totally base­less and with­out merit.  MPS is in hor­ri­ble shape by a com­bi­na­tion of man­age­r­ial waste and fraud, inat­ten­tive par­ents who gave up on not just bet­ter­ing their kids, but their neigh­bor­hoods years ago, and a school board which is well…words fail to describe it sometimes.

Milwaukee’s Pub­lic Schools are in need of a fix, and some­thing indeed needs to hap­pen to make that change a real­ity. Under the right kind of lead­er­ship from a mayor who has a record of tack­ling edu­ca­tion reform head on, Mil­wau­kee could start under many of the same reforms DC has seen under May­ors Williams and Fenty.

How­ever…

What we are very likely about to see if what Democ­rats (and seri­ously folks, you are kid­ding your­self if ever believed oth­er­wise since the NEA started call­ing the shots in that party) always do:  Use kids as a smoke­screen for the realpoli­tik going on behind the scenes.  I mean, seri­ously, after months of this idea being out there and com­plaints from Mil­wau­kee offi­cials, sud­denly they find leg­isla­tive authors.

Where were these folks weeks ago?  Did they just mate­ri­al­ize over-night?

And then next week, what do you know, the Big Guy’s com­ing to Madi­son.  And what is he talk­ing about?  You guessed it, edu­ca­tion.  Does any­one hon­estly think there won’t be some ‘alone time’ with Mayor Bar­rett or that Michelle Obama won’t give the “shared sac­ri­fice speech” to his wife Kris?  That guilt trips about ‘grand Demo­c­ra­tic loses from Mil­wau­kee to Supe­rior and parts in-between’ won’t be laid upon them every chance they get?

Now that’s all fine and good.  It’s how some party pol­i­tics go down behind-the-scenes, but they’re using the guise of reform­ing Wisconsin’s largest, most bloated, most in need of repair school sys­tem as the pup­pet the­ater to move the polit­i­cal chess pieces on the board.

That’s low.  That’s not going to help any one’s kids or any kid’s future with the sort of half-hearted effort I fear we’re about to receive from Doyle and friends.

That’s not reform; and frankly, if that’s how it’s likely to go down, then don’t bother doing it.

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Liberal Bloggers Completely Misread Walker Poll

Not sure who to laugh at more.  Zach W at Blog­ging Blue who started it, or cap­per who did what cap­per always does — assume any news about Scott Walker must be viewed through the “THIS MAN IS INCOMPETENT AND EVIL INCARNATE!!!” lens.

The two of them are going over a press report on an inter­nal Walker Cam­paign poll in Saturday’s Jour­nal Sen­tinel.  This por­tion in general:

The statewide poll found 44% of likely pri­mary vot­ers say­ing they favored Walker vs. 43% for Bar­rett, with 13% unde­cided, accord­ing to the poll. Walker is an announced Repub­li­can can­di­date for gov­er­nor. Bar­rett, a Demo­c­rat, has not said whether he’s inter­ested in run­ning for governor.

The poll was done this week for Walker’s cam­paign by the Tar­rance Group, a national polling firm for Repub­li­can can­di­dates. The firm inter­viewed 800 likely pri­mary elec­tion vot­ers Tues­day and Wednes­day. The results had a mar­gin of error of plus or minus 3.5 per­cent­age points.

The mayor’s num­bers were likely inflated by the mas­sive pub­lic­ity this week about his inter­ven­tion in a domes­tic dis­pute, accord­ing to poll­ster Brian Tringali. Bar­rett was beaten by a man with a tire iron after the mayor heard cries for help and tried to call 911.

This caused Zach to exclaim that “Walker must start wor­ry­ing about Bar­rett; who’s not even in the race!”  (Echoed by Lieben­thal with waaaaay too much enthu­si­asm if you ask me)  Which I guess would be true…if this was actu­ally meant to be a poll to mea­sure the Gen­eral Elec­tion match-ups.

What these blog­gers both seem to have missed is the Fri­day night ver­sion of this story, which included a lot more inter­nals of the poll.  In it, you can tell this was clearly meant to be a GOP Pri­mary poll, not a gen­eral elec­tion poll.

Other find­ings from the poll:

– Walker had the high­est name iden­ti­fi­ca­tion among three Repub­li­cans, but all had a sub­stan­tial gap to close. Thirty-eight per­cent of respon­dents said they had never heard of Walker, 40% hadn’t heard of Neu­mann and 73% said they’d never heard of busi­ness­man Tim Michels, who ran unsuc­cess­fully for the U.S. Sen­ate in 2004.

– On the Demo­c­ra­tic side, Bar­rett and Law­ton were both unknown by 35% of those polled, while 50% hadn’t heard of Kind. Bar­rett had a higher favor­able rat­ing (50%) than Law­ton (26%) or Kind (23%).

– Jobs and the econ­omy were men­tioned as the top issue by 28% of those polled, higher than any other issue. Hold­ing the line on taxes was listed as the top issue by 18%.

– Fifty-nine per­cent of respon­dents said that things in Wis­con­sin “have got­ten off on the wrong track” vs. 31% who said thing were going in the right direction.

I’ll admit, the Michels name iden­ti­fi­ca­tion num­bers shock me.  Then again, I often for­get the aver­age Wis­con­si­nite isn’t as immersed in pol­i­tics and news as I am.

This poll is about two things: Show Walker is the “Big Dog” on the GOP side of the equa­tion and to raise money off of it.  For­mer Madi­son Mayor Paul Soglin — who has run cam­paigns and won them in the past — seemed to see the poll’s gen­eral elec­tion num­bers for what they are: Point­less.

For a poll to be mean­ing­ful, it must not only sur­vey likely vot­ers, but it must also have the proper demo­graph­ics reflec­tive of the vot­ers who turn out on elec­tion day.

A poll of Wauke­sha County would pro­duce dif­fer­ent results from a poll of Mil­wau­kee or Dane County. A poll that was of 98% white vot­ers and excluded col­lege stu­dents or His­pan­ics or Blacks, is of lit­tle value except to pro­mote the can­di­dacy of the ben­e­fi­ciary of such decep­tive practices.

This was a poll designed to mea­sure the pri­mary elec­torate — it even said so itself when the Tar­rance Group (for­mer poll­ster of Tommy Thomp­son and national can­di­dates like Rudy Guil­iani) said the sam­ple was 800 likely pri­mary voters.

Read — It’s a pri­mary poll, to see any­thing else into it is reaching.

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